Betting Ideas and the Worth Wager in Soccer Betting

In his guide “Betting to win” Prof. Williams wrote: “If ever there was a golden age of betting, that is it”. He was completely proper. In right now’s world of soccer betting, we benefit from the companies of bookmakers, on-line betting suggestions and media information. However nonetheless there stay two essential questions any punter has to reply previous to putting his stake: who’s the favourite and what wager to put. On-line betting assets reminiscent of betting suggestions websites, staff evaluation made by consultants and the media information assist you to to decide on the match favourite and even to estimate the likelihood of win very quickly. Nevertheless, counting your income on the finish of the season, you discover them, on the very least, disappointing. Why? The reason being clear: dangerous cash administration.

This text summarizes a analysis performed with a view to estimate the optimum parameters for cash administration methods. The analysis is predicated on a comparability between statistics of high vs. secondary European soccer leagues enjoying in 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons.


To be able to current the outcomes of the analysis, plenty of definitions are required.

  • “Worth wager” is the measure of inconsistency between punters’ and bookmakers’ predictions for the upcoming match final result. Every final result has a definite worth.
  • A worth wager refers solely to the worth of probably worthwhile outcomes. For instance, if the likelihood of a win is 50%, then solely outcomes with odds increased than 2 are thought of a worth wager. The system is as follows: odds x the likelihood of a win. If the worth is increased than 1, the wager is taken into account a “worth wager”.
  • The chances of residence win/draw/away win are estimated by the common frequency of their look throughout a season.
  • Kelly’s technique defines the optimum stake {that a} punter ought to place on a favourite.
  • Given the worth of every final result, the revenue is calculated primarily based on the idea that the punter locations a stake in line with the Kelly’s technique. If the betting stake is adverse, the punter does not play. The revenue is calculated utilizing bookmakers’ common betting odds.
  • An optimum worth wager is the worth wager that brings the maximal revenue.
  • Knowledge from ten high and ten secondary leagues from the next European international locations was analyzed: Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italia, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.


A punter’s common revenue from soccer betting is calculated for worth bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimum worth wager was discovered to be 1.38, providing in a median revenue of 12% for the highest European Soccer Leagues. Nevertheless, the optimum worth wager for the secondary leagues was discovered to be 1.5, ensuing within the common revenue of 19%. This distinction implies that a punter should have a better confidence when betting on a secondary league, than when betting on a high league. The revenue is increased as a result of bookmakers’ predictions are worse, leading to enticing betting odds for punters.

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